Back by request: Fun with Stats!
October 13, 2008 at 12:07 am | In Uncategorized | 16 CommentsWell, it was asked that I go back to some of my stats comparisons (and I see one reader has already beat me to it – you guys rock!). Since we’re halfway through the cycle, I think it’s fair to look back at the stats at this point and compare them to some of our previous model-wannabes. So, I picked out the two previous cycle girls with the most similar stats. In the event of a tie, I chose the two models in the most recent cycles, since – let’s face it – Tyra’s strategies really have seemed to change since the earlier cycles.
McKey – 3.8 call out average
Most similar to: Danielle c6 (winner) and Eva c3 (winner)
So does this mean McKey’s going in for the win? Well, I certainly wouldn’t mind! However, in the past three cycles, the eventual winners’ averages at this point were less impressive (4.3 Jaslene, 5.7 Saleisha, 4.5 Whitney). What does this tell us? Tyra’s looking to see improvement, which may make a rocking call-out average at this point in the game a disadvantage.
Marjorie – 4.0 call out average
Most similar to: CariDee c7 (winner) and Nik c5 (2nd place)
Again, is our beloved Hunchback of Notre Dame perhaps too good at this point to win America’s Next Top Tyra Banks?
Other recent girls (c8-10) with call-out averages of 4.0 or under at this point in the game:
Anya c10, Jenah c9, Heather c9, Lisa c9, Brittany c8
Elina – 4.2 call out average
Most similar to: Yoanna c2 (winner) and Jaslene c8 (winner)
Elina’s been doing pretty well in the competition thus far, with a few fabulous and mostly “pretty decent” photos. She has her issues like everyone else, which is fine in Tyra-land because that gives Tyra and the Jays something to work on so that they can take credit for transforming the poor girl to a supermodel. Or something. Point being… she’s got a lot going for her.
Samantha – 4.8 call out average
Most similar to: Renee c8 (3rd place) and Melrose c7 (2nd place)
Renee and Melrose — as well as Christina c4, who had the same call out average at this point – were girls that I felt got really gypped in their eliminations, so I hope the same doesn’t happen to Samantha. At this point, I’m not really a huge fan of hers, but I did really like her bikini shot and fierce eyes shot, so I could see how she could grow on me.
Other recent girls (c8-10) with call-out averages of 4.1-5.0 at this point:
Whitney c10, Lauren c10
Joslyn – 5.7 call out average
Most similar to: Fatima c10 (3rd place) and Saleisha c9 (winner)
One thing I found interesting when looking at girls with 5.7 averages at this point (which another reader already noted) is that in the earlier cycles, girls like Toccarra, Tatiana, and Kyle were eliminated in the next episode. However, later on, girls like Jade, Dionne, Saleisha, and Fatima – who ALL had the same call-out average! – were kept on until at least the top four. So does this mean that we’re doomed to listen to Joslyn’s obnoxious voice for another four episodes? Knowing Tyra… probably.
Other recent girls (c8-10) with call-out averages of 5.1-6.0 at this point:
Katarzyna c10, Stacy-Ann c10, Chantal c9, Natasha c8, Jael c8
Analeigh – 6.2 call out average
Most similar to: Michelle c4 (6th place) and Jael c8 (6th place)
Ah, Jael… one of the most interesting ANTM contestants yet. Somehow, I don’t think Analeigh will get herself thrown into a swimming pool in a drunken lapse of judgment, but the fact that these girls with similar averages didn’t make it far after going overseas could be a bit distressing for all the Analeigh fans.
Sheena – 6.3 call out average
Most similar to: Norelle c3 (5th place) and Bre c5 (3rd place)
Well, she definitely has room for improvement, and isn’t that what Tyra loves best (besides smiling eyes and talking about herself, of course)? However, she really had better start picking up on that “improvement” stuff pretty soon if she wants to stay in the competition.
Other recent girls (c8-10) with call out averages of 6.1-7.0 at this point:
Dominique c10, Bianca c9, Ambreal c9
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McKey ftw! : D
It’s weird that even though she has the highest call-out of the bunch, she’s also one of the only ones left who had never gotten a top 2 photo.
Comment by Boof. — October 13, 2008 #
how do u come up wit the call out avg?
Comment by all — October 13, 2008 #
Nice comparison! They’re all very accurate, but I’m in high distress for Analeigh. I said it every week, but think it’ll come true this time: I think she’s the next to go home.
Two things I was confused about was that Marjorie’s comparisons were CariDee/Nik, but you put Nik was from C3, 3rd place (which was Amanda Swafford). Nik came in second place in C5. And in the paragraph under Samantha, you put C5 Christina. She’s the sixth-place holder of C4. Just so it doesn’t throw off any readers, you know? ^^
Comment by Dorian — October 13, 2008 #
Christina was the 5th place holder!
Michelle was 6th place.
Comment by Aoi — October 13, 2008 #
You know what I noticed, Since Cycle 2 the girl who comes in third place is either black of has blond hair. Which are (Shandi,Amanda,Keenyah,Bre,Jade,Eugena,Renee,Jenah,and Fatima
Comment by Brandon — October 13, 2008 #
So possible 3rd place finishers in this cycle are Samantha, Analeigh, and joslyn
Comment by Brandon — October 13, 2008 #
hehe i missed these
most of them are unfortunately accurate for past cycles. and as for the third place, i think its a very good detail that Brandon caught. do you miss ANY little detail Brandon? 
i really dont know who will go home next, i dont like to try and predict, i actually like the suspense! but seeing that joslyn is the only black girl left, i have a feeling that she will be in the final three. there has never been[to my knowledge] a final three without a black girl, most likely to “even out the races”. whatever.
Comment by Emma — October 13, 2008 #
well im happy that Mckey is number 1 right now, and i think it is about she should get a first call-out, i mean seriously the cycle is like half-over!!!!! But anyways i hope that mckey wins with Sam or Elina second, (but i think Elina will go home next)
Comment by Dom C — October 14, 2008 #
I have a feeling that the final three will be McKey, Samantha, and __(possibly Analeigh?)__ and not necessarily in that order. Or maybe that’s just wishful thinking on my part.
Comment by Riley — October 14, 2008 #
like what i said before that y’all said as spoiler..i think McKey is the ANTM from 11th cycle…
Comment by Michaelicious — October 14, 2008 #
like what i said before that y’all said as spoiler..i think McKey is the ANTM from 11th cycle…
although i hate to said that….i hope every spoiler is not correct
Comment by Michaelicious — October 14, 2008 #
Well, there was a photo from Amsterdam published in the internet with the title “a bunch of eliminated models go sight-seeing in Amsterdam” and it portrayed Clark, Josly, Sheena, Elina & Marjorie walking along the streets of Amsterdam with some crew members so it makes me think that McKey, Samantha & Analeigh are the finale 3!!! But it leaves some questions unanswered:
-Why did the take Clark to overseas location when she was eliminated 2 episodes before the travel?
-If they took Clark, where’s Lauren Brie???
Comment by len90 — October 14, 2008 #
maybe they brought along some of the models who were eliminated to confuse the paparazzi who posted those spoiler photos… to keep us guessing…?
Comment by Christina — October 14, 2008 #
Guys, I know a lot of people hate reading spoilers, so if possible could you try to respect their wishes and try to keep the spoilers down? I know I love spoilers, but things like who was seen in the international destination, where the destination is, and other things like that could ruin the suspense a little bit. Thank you! Perhaps antm10 could make a spoiler page so you guys can discuss spoilers or something.
Comment by amythechinesekid — October 14, 2008 #
I agree, at least give warning if you’re going to do that. Even if you think it’s not true, it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t get a heads up about the topic.
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I’m hoping Elina makes it to the top. I know she kinda has one look, but her personality is rather appealing. It’s kinda mean to think that the panel just wants her to “break down” but watching personal growth always makes good tv. It’s like watching someone persevere and overcome their own obstacles and improve oneself to obtain something they really want. I know i know, it sounds rather cliched and idealistic, but it’s that kind of dynamic in her charactor that breaks the monotony of her face. In any case, I hope she makes it far.
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If Marjorie keeps up her awkward posing, she ‘could’ be ANTM’s winner. I say ‘could’ a little cautiously since she would be a rather atypical winner. If you look at all the cycle winners, they all exude some sort of confidence during the cycles. I don’t know any winners who were soft spoken or timid in presentation or even “a bundle of nerves” Marjorie does have personality and a good head on her shoulders, and can take great photos. However seeing that two models were saved based on “personality,” it brings me to think that the winner will have to be 1) eye catching 2) confident 3) personable (maybe a little toooo personable since you can always tone down a personality, but have a hard time bringing it out). So the winner will have to be fairly well rounded and not just have a pretty face. So maybe it should be America’s Next Top ROLE Model. lol. (ANTRM)
Comment by Christine — October 15, 2008 #
SPECULATION ONLY, NOT REALLY A SPOILER, BUT SPOILERISH I GUESS. : /
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After watching the recap episode, I’m thinking Analeigh is doomed, while McKey, Sam, Elina and Sheena get the farthest, maybe?
The parts where Analeigh did awesome (only one week of her three continuous good weeks were shown) were cut. Much like how they only showed Lauren Brie as the one that “sucked” in the disaster shoot, to somehow justify her elimination in the Fiercee shoot.
McKey and Sam had LOTS of screen time, and I thought they were edited in a really positive way, even Sam’s rather bratty moments.
Elina and Sheena, however, suddenly got bitch edits in the recap episode.
I dunno. Just speculation based on the editing. I hope it isn’t true, though. I want to squeeze Marjorie into that list. <3
Comment by Boof — October 16, 2008 #